martha: okay. >> the obama lead is a real one. it is not a lead that would disappear if the polls were weighted in a slightly different direction. but that being said, in the state of ohio, for example, where they have a plus 8 democratic skew, in 2004 it, was a plus 5 republican skew. now i don't expect that we're going to go back as far as we did in '04, martha, but i do think that a 3, 4, 5, point democratic bulk would be right, that means the obama lead woo come down 3, 4, 5 points. there is some bias. obama is still ahead nonetheless. martha: lots to talk about here. monica, there are those who would look at this situation and all the outcry over the polls and say, when you're having a problem you will suddenly say that the polls are skewed. >> yeah. no, but i agree with doug. look, there are a couple things going on here. a lot of these polls are oversampling democrats as doug pointed out and overestimating the democratic turn grout they're saying democratic turnout will be greater than two thought and as doug says nobody be